Thursday, August 16th, 2018 MST

Strong season ahead for gold

Historically gold puts in nearly 100% of its annual gain between early July and the end of February, which means that now, right in the middle of all the pessimism about gold (and silver), is the time to add to your precious metals holdings.

Yes, there are many other reasons the price of gold/silver should rise in the coming months.  For example, the much-heralded tax cuts are being financed with the issuance of more debt, the US debt to GDP ratio is the third worst in the world (behind Japan and Italy) and interest on the national debt is projected to reach $1.3 trillion by 2022 and the national debt may double from $21 trillion to $40 trillion over the next ten years – and that’s without a recession that would reduce tax collections and increase deficit spending.

What I’m talking about is the seasonality of gold’s price action.

According to Incrementum AG, an independent investment and asset management company based in Liechtenstein, “Gold typically rises from the beginning of July to the end of February.  Almost the entire average gain tends to occur during that period, while the remaining 167 days of the year record any seasonal gains at all (on average just 0.30%).”

To obtain this data, Incrementum used the services of Seasonex, a firm that specializes in analyzing seasons and cycles, which reviewed the data over the last 50 years for gold.  That gold’s primary upswing in price comes between now and the end of February should be comfort to gold/silver investors.

Gold’s strong season typically begins in July as dealers in India stock up in front of the harvest season and before the gold gift-giving festivals and wedding season.  Indians have long had an affinity for gold – as a country – and were the largest buyers of gold until China became more prosperous after adopting some capitalistic concepts.

The Chinese New Year (late January into February) kicks off gold buying there, and, of course, Christmas in the US and Europe is a big buying period — but pales compared to the Indian and Chinese buying.

Thanks to Fred Hickey of the High-Tech Strategist newsletter for alerting me to the strong seasonality of gold.  The rest of 2018 should be of interest to gold and silver investors – especially if stocks put in a major decline as some analysts (such as David Stockman) predict.  Hickey, too, is a bear on stocks.

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