David Stockman, Budget Director (1977-1981) under Ronald Reagan, offers unique analyses on today’s economic and political developments. Unlike a lot of analysts, Stockman has a grasp of the economic situation and political developments. He is a bear on stocks and on the economy. Below are links to recent Bloomberg interviews with him.
“The great financial crisis of 2007/08 will be eclipsed. In a nutshell, this time the quantity of new money required will likely lead to the destruction of the “full faith and credit” in the currencies themselves, which until now has been broadly unquestioned by ordinary members of the public.” — Alasdair Macleod
Listening to analysts and economists who are frequent guests on financial programs, you might conclude that higher interest rates — which the Fed is imposing — will be good for the economy. No, they won’t.
According to news wire reports, gold’s $20 plus upside move today is part of a rush to safe havens. US Treasuries are up also, which means that yields are down. The blame, again according to reports, lies with the tariffs that Trump laid on Chinese imports. China fired back with tariffs of its own. Will
In my post No reflation?, I discussed the perma-bulls’ continued recommendation of “buying the dips.” In support of their position, TV talking heads speak of an “improved economy and higher corporate earnings” as reasons to continue buying stocks. However, if I’m reading David Stockman’s reports correctly, what the perma-bulls are really counting on is “reflation”
Last week Germany’s central bank pompously announced that it had completed its repatriation of $31 billion in gold from Paris and New York, ridiculing earlier speculation that the gold had somehow been compromised. A widely circulated theory was that Germany’s gold had been borrowed by bullion houses and delivered against futures contracts that were sold
Famed investor Jim Rogers recently granted a video interview to a Singapore gold dealer. The video, less than 15 minutes, is worth the time as Rogers is one of the few well-known billionaires who publicly advocates owning gold (although the number is increasing).
New York Fed President William Dudley said that he supports another rate hike this year if the economy “evolves as he expects.” He also thinks it’s reasonable for the Fed to start selling part of its $4.5 trillion portfolio, which it accumulated through several quantitative easing programs.
Fred Hickey, whose stock market and gold predictions I’ve written about before, sees the stock market on precarious ground. He reminds investors that the Fed kicked off this bull market in stocks and bonds eight years ago with a forecast that massive money creation would “lift asset prices and generate a wealth effect,” which then