Sunday, May 20th, 2018 MST

The graph below is scary

Whenever corporate debt-to-GDP has had sharp runups, reaching levels of 40% plus, recessions have followed.  Three times since 1986, aggressive taking on of corporate debt has been followed by recessions.

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All is well

If you watch the financial news networks, especially Fox, you are told that “All is well,” that the economy will grow this year somewhere near 3% and that stocks are still good buys.  However, there are indicators of strains on the economy that are not often mentioned on Fox.

Gold out performs stocks

So far this year, gold has outperformed stocks, up 2.5%, about what the Dow Industrials are down, for a 5% difference.  Still, gold’s performance this year has been disappointing to many investors considering the huge downside moves that stocks put in this year.  For 2017, the S&P 500 gained 19.4%, the Nasdaq 28.2%, and the

Ron Paul and gold

Millennials, It was astonishing that when Ron Paul dropped out of the 2012 presidential race many of his followers jumped to supporting Bernie Sanders, an avowed socialist.  Ron Paul, of course, is a libertarian who rails against socialism in all forms.

The dollar will be destroyed

In my post No reflation?, I discussed the perma-bulls’ continued recommendation of “buying the dips.”  In support of their position, TV talking heads speak of an “improved economy and higher corporate earnings” as reasons to continue buying stocks. However, if I’m reading David Stockman’s reports correctly, what the perma-bulls are really counting on is “reflation”

No reflation?

David Stockman issues one of the most thought-provoking newsletters I’ve read in years.   He combines his experience in the Reagan administration as Budget Director with his more than 30 years in the investment world, much of it with some of the best-known firms on Wall Street, to present views rarely found elsewhere. Stockman has constantly