February 2026 started where January left off, volatile and fast-moving, with plenty of reasons to watch precious metal prices closely. After January’s historic highs and the dramatic selloff triggered by Kevin Warsh’s Federal Reserve nomination, February became a month of recovery. All four metals gained ground. Then a major geopolitical shock landed on the final day of the month, which sent investors back to hard assets with fresh urgency and set up a volatile start to March.
Gold
Gold opened February at $4,660.20 and closed at $5,279.11, recovering from its post-Warsh lows and climbing steadily back toward its all-time settlement record of $5,318.40, set January 29.
According to CPM Group, gold ETF investors were net buyers for the ninth consecutive month in February, adding nearly 499,000 ounces, which points to institutional conviction rather than short-term positioning. Nine straight months of net buying reflects a sustained decision about where capital belongs, not a reaction to headlines.
Back in December, before January’s historic run and the selloff that followed, JP Morgan’s head of Global Commodities Strategy Natasha Kaneva made a case that has only grown more relevant since: “The long-term trend of official reserve and investor diversification into gold has further to run. We expect gold demand to push prices toward $5,000/oz by year-end 2026.” Two months into 2026, with central banks having purchased 10.2 million ounces in 2025 according to CPM Group and ETF inflows continuing uninterrupted, that outlook looks well-supported.
On February 28, the U.S. and Israel launched military strikes against Iran, which spiked safe-haven demand immediately and pushed gold toward $5,400 in the opening days of March as the conflict expanded into a broader regional war. JP Morgan held its year-end target at $6,300 per ounce and raised its long-term forecast to $4,500, citing a global shift away from dollar-heavy reserves, which has been building since 2022 and shows little sign of reversing.
February’s price action confirmed that the uptrend in place since August 2025 remains intact, meaning the late-January correction was exactly that: a correction, not a reversal.
Silver
Silver opened at $79.28 and closed at $93.78, in a rebound from a brutal January, which suggested that the underlying demand for silver didn’t disappear when prices did.
According to CPM Group, silver ETF investors added 15.8 million ounces in February after cutting 35.1 million in January, with the single largest daily purchase on February 2, when investors added 30.65 million ounces in one session. Buying that aggressively into a dip indicates the selloff was viewed as an entry point, not a warning sign.
The silver spot price holding above $70 through a major correction matters more than it might look, which becomes clearer when you consider that silver had never traded at these levels before December 2025. Holding that floor after a 31% single-day drop speaks to how structurally different this market is compared to prior silver cycles.
JP Morgan projects silver will average $81 per ounce in 2026, more than double its 2025 average, driven in part by AI infrastructure emerging as the fastest-growing new source of industrial demand, alongside solar panels and electric vehicles.
The risk that comes with those elevated prices, though, is one JP Morgan’s Gregory Shearer has been watching carefully. As prices climbed through 2025, he noted that manufacturers were already beginning to look for ways around silver dependency: “From a fundamental perspective, we believe the surge higher in silver has likely already set in motion a meaningful acceleration in substitution and thrifting trends.” Those changes take years to fully materialize, which means investment demand remains the dominant price driver in the near term.
Platinum and Palladium
Platinum gained 11.4% in February, rising from $2,126.82 to $2,368.90, reflecting continued support from the EU’s reversal on internal combustion engine bans, tightening emissions standards in Europe and China, and persistent supply constraints out of South Africa.
Even with profits surging, the miners producing that platinum aren’t rushing to bring new supply online. Reuters reported in February that executives across the industry are prioritizing shareholder returns over expansion, with Valterra Platinum CEO Craig Miller drawing a clear line between current prices and what it actually takes to justify new development: “PGM prices today are not far off what we think is that price that you’d be able to earn a reasonable return on a new mining project.” The implication is that prices need to hold, not just spike, which limits how quickly new supply can enter the market.
That constraint runs deeper than price thresholds alone. Sibanye Stillwater CEO Richard Stewart pushed back on the idea that a number on a chart is enough to unlock new production:
“The constraint on growth within the PGM industry is not a question of incentive pricing. It’s a lot more complex than simply a trigger price that will incentivize new production.” Rising energy and labor costs in South Africa, where the bulk of global PGM supply originates, are compounding that complexity and keeping a quiet ceiling on future output.
Looking Ahead
Precious metals ended February under pressure from the U.S.-Iran conflict, which pushed oil prices higher, brought inflation risks back into focus, and reset the table heading into March.
However, the forces driving precious metals higher do not appear cyclical. Government debt, currency pressure, central bank diversification, and geopolitical instability compound over time rather than resolve, which is why the case for buying gold and silver as a long-term wealth preservation strategy has only gotten more straightforward.
Spot price data sourced from CMI Gold & Silver’s daily spot prices.
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