Tomorrow America votes in one of the most divisive elections that I’ve seen. In Arizona, the Democrats started way behind in the polls but made up some ground by going negative. Nearly every Democratic ad I’ve seen has been an attack ad against the Republican candidate. Seeing the Dems gaining, the GOP went negative. It’s a bloody battle here, and I suspect it’s the same across the country.
Also interesting: I’ve yet to see an ad by any candidate saying, “Send me to Washington. I support Obama’s programs.” Campaign signs don’t even reveal the Democratic candidates’ party affiliation.
Arizona’s 3rd Congressional race, which happens to be my district, is especially brutal. Ben Quayle, son for former vice president Dan Quayle but practically an unknown in Arizona, won the GOP nomination over several candidates whom the GOP establishment had deemed deserving because of their long involvement in the party.
However, with a campaign chest more than $2 million, much of the money raised outside Arizona and at an event at Bush 1’s ranch in Texas, Quayle pulled off an upset, promising to go back to Washington and do, what else, but “change things.” Actually, he said he was going to back there and “knock the hell of” someone. Quayle rode the disenchantment with Washington to victory and looks to become one of Arizona’s eight Congresspersons (In Arizona, two women hold Congressional seats.)
The Dems, in their efforts to defeat Quayle, are mailing brochures to registered Republicans endorsing the Libertarian candidate as an alternative to Quayle, hoping the pull votes from him. In a radio interview, the Libertarian said the Dems were spending more money on his campaign than he was.
Presently, the polls tell us that the GOP will make gains in the Senate and the House. The Democratic pollsters and analysts tell us that a GOP gain will be “no big deal” as the party out of power usually makes gains in mid-term (off-year) elections, especially when the economy is suffering. Still, the Dems have to fear huge GOP victories.
The GOP, on the other hand, hopes that the gains will much bigger than in past mid-year elections.
The “experts” say the GOP will not win control of the Senate but stand a good chance of gaining control in the House. If the GOP wins big, the stock market most likely will see huge gains this week. Should the GOP pull off a miracle and win control of the Senate, stocks could enjoy a good upside move.
But, how would gold and silver react to a big GOP win?
I believe that gold and silver are in strong secular bull markets and will continue upward regardless of the election outcome. This is not to say that there will not be periods of downward movement, such as October 16 – 23, but the primary trend is upward and will continue upward, regardless of tomorrow’s election results.