1) Covid-19 is a severe supply side shock, but main street will bounce back once the public health separation orders are relaxed in the months ahead. The idea of a Depression is nonsense because main street capitalism does not have a death wish. Households and businesses will creatively find ways to cope, repair, replenish and
Several reasons to buy pre-1965 US 90% silver coins. Note that this blog post is dated March 10, 2020. When posted, we were selling 90% at .39 over spot. Then came the coronavirus. One, we are selling them at .39 over spot (dimes and quarters). In hot markets, such as in 2011, they can pick
With the outbreak of COVID-19 (coronavirus), many economists – including a former Fed president – have called for lower interest rates to head off any recession.
A recent newsletter noted that there has not been a “Black Swan” in a while, a “Black Swan” being an event that comes as a surprise and has a major effect on mankind’s affairs. The coronavirus, now named COVID-19, just rendered that observation invalid.
Total fourth quarter (Q4) demand fell 19% y-o-y to 1,045.2 tons. Two main contributors to the drop were jewelry and physical bar demand, both of which reacted to the elevated gold price. In US dollar value terms, the decline in Q4 demand was much shallower – down just 3% to US $49.7 billion. Inflows into
Warren Buffett is considered the most successful investor of our time. One of the indicators that he follows is the stock market’s total valuation to GDP, which is now flashing red. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway currently holds in excess of $128 billion in cash. The vertical grey lines in the chart are major recessions. Note how
On October 24, 2019, I posted a bullish flag pattern, wherein gold appeared ready to break out to new highs, above the $1500 level. It did not. Prices fell from there. However, as prices fell, they did not violate the flag pattern. They merely extended the pattern.
To “save the world’s economy” in the 2008 World Financial Crisis (WFC), the Federal Reserve led the world’s central banks in printing money, hiking its holdings of T-bills and other bonds – some quite specious – from $900 billion to $4.5 trillion, a five-fold increase.