Tuesday, September 27th, 2016 MST

Which way for gold?

Martin Murenbeeld, the Chief Economist at Dundee Wealth Economics and a noted gold analyst, fears that gold is vulnerable to a sizable correction (drop in price) while resource industry icon Rob McEwen makes a case for $5000 gold and $200 silver — in four years!  What to do?

This may be a “trading opportunity” for speculators plying for quick profits, but physical gold (and silver) investors need to hold their positions.

Even if Murenbeeld is correct, multiple challenges arise for sellers at these levels.  First, taxes would be incurred on profits.  Second, sellers would be out of the metals at a time when near chaos reigns in the financial markets.  Third, determining a re-entry point is difficult. Fourth, and I’ve see this often, having the discipline to re-enter the market on a drawback requires nerves of steel.  Too often, traders will not re-enter the market at all because they are constantly looking for still lower prices and are left on the sidelines are prices roar to the upside, passing sellers’ original exit prices.

While reading the Murenbeeld article, keep in mind that he is a bull and is only advising clients that gold is vulnerable.  He is not necessarily recommending that investors try to trade this market.

10 Responses to “Which way for gold?”

  1. Steve

    For someone who has only enough to scratch the metals market and a pittance of an investment in a metals IRA, yet not enough to afford (or warrant) an adviser, my question would be what percent profit should one look for minimum before being forced to bail from your holdings. I ask for all accounts, though an IRA has the added risk of “Big Bro” wanting to perhaps confiscate and promising perhaps “guaranteed” annuities (Hello, Argentina!)?

    Reply
    • Bill Haynes

      Because of the massive inflationary programs around the world and because of the uncertainty in the world’s financial stability, investors should not look for a percentage gain going in but should continue to evaluate the circumstances that have made gold and silver the safe haven refuges. As long as insanity reigns in the financial markets, hold on to your gold and silver.

      Reply
    • Tom

      If you need to sell some gold to raise cash for a specific purpose, fine. I would not sell any gold in this current environment simply out of fear of it losing value against a worthless paper currency on a short-term basis. I think the performance of gold against all other asset classes over the last month is but a small, sneak preview of we’re going to witness in the near future.

      Reply
  2. Lynda

    Is it the same for silver? I go to an auction every week and there is always some kind of sterling silver up for auction. Even though it ends up going for quite a bit… still, I might be able to sneak in the bid and buy some occassionally but couldn’t afford to buy any gold. And can you tell me the difference between sterling and British (?) 800? I know what .997 or whatever the number actually is means…the actual percentage of silver, but not sure what 800 is?

    Reply
    • Bill Haynes

      “800 silver” is 80% silver. Sterling is 92.5% silver. When buying silver in such forms, remember to allow for the refining fees.

      Reply
  3. Debbie Rodgers

    In spite of the coming price drop on gold and silver, we’ve decided not sell our holdings. However, besides bullion, we did buy two ms66 saints last year as newbies to the gold trade. Would you recommend selling those while keeping the coins with low premiums?

    Thanks so much…

    Reply
    • Bill Haynes

      At CMIGS, we have always warned against buying high-premium gold coins, which are usually old US gold coins that are promoted by firms that advertise on cable TV and radio. As to whether you should trade the two MS66 Saint Gaudens for bullion coins, that needs to be discussed with one of our brokers.

      Reply
  4. Thom Arceneaux

    Can someone explain to me why gold/silver is tracking the stock market? I always thought that when stocks went down, investors would be looking for a safe haven and invest in gold/silver, but it seems for the last few months, when stock went down, gold/silver went down also and when stocks went up, gold/silver also went up.

    Reply
    • Bill Haynes

      Historically, precious metals prices have gone contrary to stock prices over long periods of time. However, over the last few months, PM prices and stock prices both have retreated from their highs, though stocks much more so than gold.

      Still, over the long run, gold has gone up while stocks have fallen. Stocks hit their high in 2007, when gold was in the $700 range.

      Reply

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